I would enjoy hearing your views regarding the causes of this horrible war.
July
- August 1914
The
assassination of the Archduke offered Austria an opportunity to destroy its old
foe Serbia. However, Russia and Serbia shared a common culture and political
ties whereby Russia would come to Serbia’s defense, which prevented Austria
from acting. The murder of Franz Ferdinand also afforded Austria the Kaiser’s full
support in if they decided to attack Serbia. Although the European countries did not want a
war, there were those in Germany that had planned for war and waited for the
right time to initiate it. By mid August time and opportunity for war was ripe.
*****
By
the first week in July Serbia had identified all the conspirators involved in
the assassination. The assassins were not Serbs but subjects of
Austro-Hungarian Bosnia who lived in Serbia and therefore in order Austria to
justify armed conflict, they had to establish a link between the Serbian
government and the assassins.
If
evidence could be found connecting Serbia with the assassination, Austria might
have been able to convince Russia of Serbia’s guilt. If Russia sided with
Austria, there would not have been a World War.
On
July 6th the Kaiser gave the Austrians his commitment to support them
in dealing with Serbia. By giving Austria his support, he placed the future of
Europe into Austrian hands, but they had to act quickly in order to prevent
Russia, France or England from getting involved.
First
Austria had to convince Europe that Serbia was the one who provoked Austria
into taking action. Austria’s response had to be carried out quickly in order
to prevent Russia, France or England the time to get involved.
It
is standard knowledge that assumptions are risky, but in July of 1914 the
Kaiser and his staff made several assumptions, which would come back to haunt
them. Their first assumption was Russia was not prepared to fight a war, so they
believed that Russia would not stand by Serbia. They also assumed that France
was not ready to fight a war and they would calm Russia. Believing his
assumption were accurate, the Kaiser felt his support of Austria would not become
necessary, if Austria took immediate action before the European powers caught
wind of Germany’s involvement.
Both
the Austrian and Hungary Premiers and their ministers formed a cabinet to deliberate
over what action to take. The Hungarian Premier was that if they attacked
Serbia, as suggested by Germany, there was a risk of all out war. He suggested
that they draw-up an ultimatum containing a list of demands so outrageous that
Serbia could not agree to them.
The
ultimatum was thought to be a ‘win, win’ position for Austria because if Serbia
did not agree, the European powers would believe Austria would be justified in
punishing Serbia. But, if Serbia agreed to the demands, war would be circumvented.
There
were two problems with this alternative plan, it would take a week before it
could be acted upon, and it would forewarn countries of a possible war.
By
July 14th the ultimatum had not yet reached its final form, and the
final document would not be ready until July 19th.
By
now time had run out, rumors of a hidden agreement between Austria and Germany
were circulating. Franz Joseph read and approved the final draft; then had it
delivered to Austrian’s envoy in Belgrade. The envoy would deliver it to the
Serbian government on a prearranged date and they would have forty-eight-hours,
July 25th, to agree to the terms. However, the ultimatum did not
spell out what would happen if they did not agree to the demands.
If
Germany’s assumptions were incorrect, then there would be a possible war. The
only way out would be if Austria failed to act on its ultimatum or Serbia accepts
all of the demands.
Russia
applied pressure on Serbia to accept Austria’s demands and place its faith in
European justice. Yet, Russia had made
several compromises to Germany in the past in order to keep peace, and the
compromises only produced more concessions. Therefore the Russian government decided
to try a firm approach when dealing with Germany. They decided to order a
partial mobilization of their army to give Germany the impression they would
stand firm.
France
secretly initiated their first steps in preparation of war by recalling its
generals and bringing their troops home from Morocco.
With
all of the political maneuverings between countries in hopes of evading a war,
there was someone in favor of war, Germany’s Chief of Staff von Moltke. He had
developed a secret war strategy that even ranking officials, including the Kaiser,
were not aware of. It included a preemptive attack against both Russia and
France, a two front war. In order to accomplish his plan he would need the full
support of the German people. Russia’s partial mobilization would afford him the
opportunity he was looking for.
Moltke’s
plan mirrored that of Schlieffen’s 1906 plan; gather a large army and invade
France through Belgium. A main element in Moltke’s plan involved Austria
aligning its army along the Russian front; to act as a shield to protect
Germany when war broke out.
Germany kept pressuring Austria to attack Serbia as soon as possible but their army would not be ready until mid August. But an unexpected event would happen which
would initiate a war the European powers, including Germany, did not want, but could not stop.